NSW is on target to reach 8928 new daily Covid cases by the 7th of October with hospitals overrun

Shane Dowling

3 years ago

NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian has admitted that October is predicted to be the worst month for NSW’s Covid crisis. But Berejiklian refused multiple times at the media briefing on Wednesday (1/9/21) to reveal the estimated figures for the number of daily Covid cases and hospitalisations etc for October. So, I have done it for Premier Berejiklian and as per below I estimate, based on the current growth rate, that NSW will reach 8928 daily Covid cases on the 7th of October which means the hospitals will be in crisis and other states will be called on to support the NSW health system.

In this article I just want to make some key points in regards to the lies being told and reinforce that the number of new daily Covid cases is the number everyone should be focused on as it quickly tells the story of how things are tracking and at this point everyone in NSW should be preparing a tough run ahead. And what happens if October isn’t the peak but it peaks months later?

On Monday daily Covid cases in NSW had been doubling every 11.2 days which I rounded up to every 12 days and below I calculated the daily cases for the next 36 days are:

1116 – 1st September – 2232 – 13th September – 4464 – 25th September – 8928 – 7th October

I’m estimating it will be 8928 new daily Covid cases by the 7th of October but NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian also has modelling telling her how many daily cases, how many people in hospital and in ICU with Covid by October but she won’t tell the media or the public what her modelling says. Why? We can only assume her modelling must be bad news but the public are entitled to know so they can plan and take appropriate action.

Even if NSW only reach something like 3000 cases per day by October the NSW health system will be at breaking point because it is already severely stressed now with just over 1000 new Covid cases per day. The SMH reported on the 29/8/21:

Like nothing else. The patients are air-hungry, starving for breath. Just to turn a patient over, from on their back to on their stomach – which is something we must do regularly – and keep them breathing, needs six nurses. And we simply don’t have enough of us. We are on the edge right now, with nurses who sign on for eight-hour shifts, leaving after 12 and 14 hours! (Click here to read more)

And the NSW Paramedics Union Tweeted (1/9/21) the below video and said:

12 ambulances waited at Westmead Hospital last night. After queuing at ED, many were sent on to Northern Beaches as Westmead hit capacity. Paramedics can’t be there for our communities when we’re stuck in bed block. We desperately need better processes for offloading patients.

It is the headline daily Covid cases figure that is the most important at this point because if that is going up then all the other figures such as the number of people in hospital and ICU will also be going up. And we know if the number of Covid cases continues to go up in the 1000’s per day then NSW is in big trouble as hospital and other health workers are already under huge pressure with the current rate of daily cases.

This article is a follow-up to my article published on the 22/8/21 titled “NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian’s covid lies exposed by WA Premier Mark McGowan” which gives more background to this article. (Click here to read the previous article)

NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian says not to focus on the daily new Covid case numbers

Premier Gladys Berejiklian is using an old sales routine where you try to get people to focus on the smallest number possible and that is why she is coaching the media not to focus on the number of daily new Covid cases. For example, in sales if you are selling a mobile phone plan for $80 a month you will tell potential customers it is only $2 a day or a can of coke a day which makes it sound cheap and people are more likely to buy.

Gladys Berejiklian is telling the journalists at the daily press briefing to not focus on the 1000 plus daily new Covid cases but to focus on the number of people in hospital and ICU which is crazy, but some journalists seem to have bought the line and are pushing Berejiklian’s propaganda as per the below headlines in the SMH.

With cases in the 1000’s Spring isn’t looking good for NSW and Christmas reunions would have to be in real doubt. But talking about that takes away focus from the immediate problems. Gladys Berejiklian has announced no new measures in the last week to combat the rapidly rising Covid cases. It seems “let it rip” is her only policy.

NSW’s Covid crisis is turning into a speeding train heading towards a brick wall, which will have a impact on all states, and the only thing the Premier Gladys Berejiklian and the government politicians are doing is spinning lies and most of the media are helping to spread the lies at least to some degree.

Vaccinations, with the current low rates, won’t solve the immediate problem or even likely have much impact until next year and all the data points to NSW hospitals and health workers being overwhelmed in October and beyond with 1000’s of Covid cases in hospital. But the government are giving the NSW public false hope everyday instead of taking the action that they need to take now to try and avoid the crisis they know is coming.

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