The Liberal / National Party coalition will never again have majority control of the federal government and the Labor / Liberal duopoly of taking turns for majority control is over.
The 2 key indicators of that are the demolition of the Liberal Party vote, loss of seats and the Community Independents / Teals holding their numbers, or close to it.
The loss of Liberal Party seats and votes is an obvious hurdle they will have to overcome but the fact that Community Independents / Teals are here to stay long-term and are the new third force in federal politics is something most voters don’t yet know or understand.
Background of the Community Independents / Teals
The background of Community Independents can be found on the Community Independents Project website which says:
In 2013 Cathy McGowan was elected as a Community Independent to the federal seat of Indi. She handed the baton to Helen Haines in 2019 when Zali Steggall was also elected as the Independent Member for Warringah.
What Cathy and Helen achieved in a regional seat over successive elections, and Zali Steggall in a city seat, inspired a nationwide movement.
To share learnings and encourage more community independents, the inaugural Community-minded Independents Convention “Getting Elected” was held in February 2021. Beyond all expectations, 300 people across more than 72 federal electorates took part.
At the Convention participants asked for the knowledge sharing and network building to continue. In response, Cathy McGowan, Alana Johnson, Jill Briggs and Tina Jackson established the Community Independents Project (CIP). The Project continues the work of the Convention, putting community at the centre of Australian politics.
The Election on 21 May 2022 was a win for community and a better way of doing politics. Seven new Community Independents were elected, joining Zali Steggall OAM and Helen Haines, resulting in the biggest cross bench Australia has ever seen.
The cross bench of the 47th Parliament includes Helen Haines (Indi), Kate Chaney (Curtin), Zoe Daniel (Goldstein), Zali Steggall (Warringah), Kylea Tink (North Sydney, unfortunately abolished in the 2024 AEC Redistribution), Dr Sophie Scamps (Mackellar), Allegra Spender (Wentworth) and Dr Monique Ryan (Kooyong). David Pocock was elected as an Independent to the Senate.
In August 2022, CIP held the “Empowered Communities: Next Steps” Convention to celebrate an election like no other and plan what’s next. The June 2023 Convention theme was “Get Political: Communities taking political action” – connecting, collaborating, activating for a better Australia. The theme of our 2024 Convention was People Powered Politics. (Click here to read more)
“The Community Independents movement is people powered, purposeful and collaborative, united by wanting genuine community representation and propelled by the urgency of the issues that face us.”
“CIP supports the movement by connecting, networking, sharing resources and practical help and amplifying how and why community independents can change Australian politics for the better.” (Click here to read more)
Community Independents Project is the foundation that led to the Community Independents being elected to parliament and the Community Independents Project will be here for years to come.
Previously, independents have been elected but once they lose their seat or retire their seat goes back to the major parties.
Now, as shown above with Cathy McGowan retiring in 2019 and handing her Community Independent base and structure to Helen Haines to run in 2019, it means the foundation and structure for election in the seat in transferred from one candidate to the next the same as the major parties in effect do.
The transferring of the foundation and structure from one candidate to the next for Community Independents is a real game changer which will see the number of independents in parliament continue to grow over time.
Simon Holmes à Court and Climate 200
If you believe the media, Simon Holmes à Court and the fundraising group Climate 200 own and/or control the Community Independents. They don’t.
Simon Holmes à Court and Climate 200 donate money to and support the Community Independents but if Simon Holmes à Court and Climate 200 withdraw their support the Community Independents will continue to be around and will continue to grow.
The Liberals threw $millions at the Community Independents and failed to beat at least 3 of them and likely more.
And the Labor Party threw plenty at winning back the Division of Fowler but lost again to Independent MP Dai Le.
While Dai Le is not part of the Community Independent Project you would expect that she, and other independents not part of the CIP, would learn from them and transfer their base to someone else when they retire.
Counting continues
There are still seats such as Zoe Daniel in Goldstein and Monique Ryan in Kooyong who could lose their seats but overall the number of Independents should be around the same it was this past government which was 13 MPs.
In the below video, published on Monday (5/5/25), I deal more with the death of the Labor / Liberal duopoly:
The Liberals / National coalition will end up on about 40 seats which means they would need to win about 36 seats at the next election which won’t happen for several reasons.
Firstly, as I say in the above video, the current federal Labor government is really a fourth term government given many of them, including Albanese, Wong, Plibersek, Marles, Bowen and Burke etc, were in the Rudd, Gillard, Rudd governments from 2007 until 2013.
They have too much experience to make enough mistakes to allow the coalition to win 36 seats at one election. (I address this issue further in the above video)
Secondly, the Community Independents will be a stronger force in 3 years and be harder to win seats from and harder to stop them winning more seats.
And thirdly, the Coalition do not have the leadership to make a serious challenge. Especially if they choose someone like Angus Taylor as their leader with his dodgy past.
If you think no one could be worse than Peter Dutton as Liberal Party leader then you obviously haven’t heard of Angus Taylor.
Even if the Liberals find someone reasonable to be their leader there isn’t enough quality in the Coalition to have a decent team supporting the leader. The bottom line is a Z team won’t cut it and the Coalition don’t have anything better than that.
The Coalition are looking at least another 6 years in opposition and over that time the Community Independents will continue to grow and likely have the balance of power.
The best the Coalition can hope for is maybe a minority government in 6 years from now. For that to change the Community Independents would have to disappear, and that won’t happen.
Will the Labor / Liberal UniParty continue
The Duopoly of the Coalition and Labor Party taking turns in majority control government is over.
But what about the UniParty where they work together as one party?
One of the biggest sucker punches during the election is somehow the Labor Party convinced the Liberal Party to preference them above The Greens and now you will have numerous Labor Party MPs in government because of the preferences of the Liberal Party.
Why the Liberal Party would help the Labor Party to win seats is embarrassing for them and shows them working as a UniParty.
Labor have won at least 2 seats and maybe more off The Greens, and now instead of having The Greens embarrassing the Labor Party in parliament, Labor have more MPs in parliament. What the Liberal Party were thinking is beyond me.
The Labor Party have schooled the Liberal Party when it comes to the UniParty and Labor are now the senior partner to the detriment of the Liberal Party.
The election results are fascinating to watch and it’s not what most expected.
All things considered, I think a Labor Party minority government would have been the best result but the result we end up with will likely see a minority Labor government in 3 or 6 years from now or an outside chance of a Coalition minority government in 6 years from now.
At least we are slowly heading away from the Liberal / Labor Duopoly.
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Categories: Peter Dutton, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese
Labor has taken over Howard’s policies( business runs aged care, child care, job providers, Private Health insurers, big financial support for Private Schools) with the NDIS so spending many $billions annually with no accountability as to how our taxes are spent, as well as much financial support, good tax deductions, for certain businesses, mining, including the fossil fuel industry.
For these generous taxpayer payments, many $millions flow to the Labor Party as a ‘thank you’. To be used for expensive re-election advertising which convinces the many apolitical Australian voters.
If you don’t have money to donate to the Labor Party – poorer Australians, children, bushland, habitats, native animals, birds, plants,….you will be ignored.
Labor is still the Alternate Liberal Party. Supporting as a priority the USA with AUKUS, many big businesses and wealthier Australians.
I was briefly a member of the Labor Party in the last century. They spent their time fighting between themselves. The duopoly will just move back to being in the party room. Bill Shorten may have left but his spirit lives on.
The right-wing media likes to get involved in Labor politics and the schism will be up and running in six months.
Anthony Albanese seems like a cautious, safe pair of hands and the parliament could do with a shake-up. An end to Party Whips and more conscience voting would help.
Always good to see the Murdoch media lose face.
I can’t see how these independents represent the everyday person when they are wealthy Australians and will follow their own interests. Albanese at least showed some humanity and let’s face it he doesn’t have the presence of some of the past Labor leaders so he was impressive on Saturday night. Some goodwill would go a long way.
Both Peter Dutton and Anthony Albanese are “are wealthy Australians and will follow their own interests.”
You appear to be grateful for any crumb that is dropped onto the floor for you.
Question the background of people who are wealthy and how they accrued their wealth., DUtton was a policeman,……look at Angus Taylor whom I have just read about on Kangaroo Court and many others.
A lot of the politicians – if put before a well-qualified for the job of employing a person who is in a Pre selection contest for a Seat , be it State or Federal, then most of these “applicants” would not have the qualifications nor expereince to be employed as a Politician. There is also the question of quality of character and standards ethics morals values principles etc, genuine invvolvement with their communities or similar voluntary work over years.
Last time I looked the Labor party received 4.6 million votes and the coalition received 4.3 million votes. Not a huge difference overall, just one party worked the system better. Independents make the other third but are not a unified force. Labor can’t rest on their laurels, or they will be out quicker than they realise. Look at Campbell Newman, a record win followed by a record loss at the next election.
I discussed Campbell Newman and how it is different in the above video.
There is an old management concept that, in every problem, see an opportunity.
The 2025 Federal Election result suggests, the following paths for the coming three years.
Albanese’s Labor Party (ALP) will see the win as a poison chalice. He is like the dog that chased a car and caught it. What does it do with it next? Albanese’s problem: he has 3 years to prove his ideology for Australia correct, while his own Party Rules give him nothing with which to work.
Liberals and Nationals combined have a 3-year opportunity to retrain and regroup. They can define the role of Politicians, Judiciary and Public Service by writing position and job descriptions. They have the opportunity to introduce prerequisites, exclusions and age restrictions to be included in these people’s CVs for review before appointment. More importantly, regular review and upgrades to our Australian Constitution can be promised.
The Liberal / National Party had 3 years to sort out their problems since they lost in 2022 and never did. What makes you think they will sort out their issues now?
The Liberal/National Party had three years in which Albanese’s party consistently lied, misdirected and obfuscated. I do not believe they (L/NP) will allow the ALP to get away with such prevarication twice. The real issue in 2025 was that Dutton did not call Albanese a liar to his face before the final campaign began. It will not be Dutton standing in Albanese’s way next time.
For the life of me I can’t understand why people even bother voting. If everyone refused to vote that would send a clear message we are feed up with their BS. I have personally lost faith in our system and long time ago. And no longer participate.
At this point, the LNP Coalition isn’t just trying to turn around a massive cruise liner – they’re trying to do a handbrake turn on the TITANIC, after it’s already hit every iceberg from Warringah to Kooyong.
Meanwhile, Labor’s cruising comfortably into what looks like two more terms, easy, sipping climate-conscious cocktails served by Community Independents on the upper deck. Peter Dutton’s steering from the boiler room, Angus Taylor is up top mistaking the stars for economic indicators, and the Teals have quietly bought the lifeboats and are rowing circles around them with voter support. It’s not a duopoly anymore – it’s political shipwreck theatre, and we’re just here for the cabaret.
Oh! And just so we’re clear: I don’t want to hear another single iota or whisper about the LNP ‘rebuild’. They’re totally irrelevant; a total waste of space and synapse. As far as I’m concerned, they can sail off to a desolate island, brutalise each other and themselves into oblivion, and not turn up again until May 2028 – and even then, they’d better bring something better than a deckchair and a broken compass, again!
As I see it there are two key ingredients here:
(1) The under 30s have moved to Labor and are never coming back to the Libs. This is especially the case with women. They can be drawn to Teal candidates. So the Libs are on a hiding to nothing.
(2) The social and economic changes sought by Albanese’s voters can’t be won without major financial structural reform: aka housing price reductions, capital gains taxes and the like. To follow this path would see Labor voted from office so the nation is condemned to lingering financial death.
Labor has had a win for the feel good movement but the real political gains are beyond them. The one good point: the Lib nightmare has been avoided.
A Government is ALWAYS VOTED OUT!!
Whoever is the incoming Government are not the Winners!!!
The under 30 voters supported the Greens not Labor. The primary vote has increased for the Greens and decreased for the Libs and the ALP. This patter will now continue.
I’m from the seat of Farrer so I m familiar with Sussan Ley. Her performance in parliament has been ridiculous and superficial. There is no way she should ever be considered as an Opposition leader and it’s frightening the Libs are even considering her. Just shows what a trashed, rump party the Libs have become. There’s no-one there of any stature to take the reins.
Hard to say who is the most evil, most corrupt, who told the most lies, not much difference between any of them, can’t recall many individuals who ran for House of Reps or Senate who had any interest in representing their fellow citizens, ABC 4 Corners 5th May 2025 was another reason why ABC has lost credibility, so bias attempt to convey a factual story, one sided to the extreme..
Your anarchism won’t get you anywhere. Something went wrong with your prediction that Albanese’s Labor government would be a “one term wonder”.
At a conference in the USA on nuclear disarmament, Albert Einstein was asked to detail how a community should go about solving a serious and destructive problem? He responded that such a problem can never be solved if it is considered only be persons who have the same mindset as those that created the problem. This is the situation for the organisation that continues to call itself The Liberal Party of Australia.
It seems to me that two ideological issues are subtly changing post election. The first is a shift by ALP in its vilification of gas as a primary energy source. The second is a surge in “educators” pressing climate change ideology on children in schools and on free to air TV.