The likelihood of Prime Minister Anthony Albanese resigning next year would have to be very high if Labor continues to go backward in the polls federally, which they have been doing over the last few months.

Given that the chance of Albanese resigning in 2027 is a real possibility, it’s worth looking at what ramifications it might have for the federal government and the Labor Party.

A recommendation popped up on YouTube today about a Sky News video titled “Albanese tipped to resign as PM next year.”

I rate Murdoch’s Sky News very lowly, but it was worth watching given that Labor leaders in Victoria and Queensland seem to be on the way out because of bad polling, either by resignation or being forced out by state Labor Party MPs. And the same could happen to Albanese.

Roy Morgan polling reported on Tuesday (9/6/26) in an article titled “One Nation surges into first place for primary support – but the ALP is still favoured to win a two-party preferred majority” :

In the last week One Nation primary support increased 2.5% to 29.5% and is now clearly ahead of the ALP, down 1% to 26% and the L-NP Coalition, down 2.5% to 17.5% – Liberals on 14.5% (down 3%) and Nationals 3% (up 0.5%). Support for the Greens was up 2% to 15.5%, and Independents/ Other Parties down 1% to 11.5% according to the Roy Morgan survey conducted from June 1-7, 2026, with a representative Australia-wide cross-section of 1,631 electors.

This is the first time in a Roy Morgan Federal Poll that One Nation has been ahead of both the ALP (by 3.5% points) and the L-NP Coalition (by 12% points).

Since the Federal Budget was delivered by Treasurer Jim Chalmers on Tuesday May 12, 2026, primary support for One Nation is up 5% points to 29.5%, ALP support is down 3.5% points to 26%, L-NP Coalition support is down 6.5% points to 17.5%, and Greens support is up 4% points to 15.5%.

In effect, since the Federal Budget, One Nation has gained support at the expense of the L-NP Coalition, and the Greens have gained support at the expense of the ALP. (Click here to read more)

If the Labor Party stays at 26% of the primary vote, they will be in big trouble come the May 2028 federal election, although the Roy Morgan article says the “ALP is still favoured to win a two-party preferred majority.”

A poll saying “still favoured to win” is not a great position for Labor given they are on 94 seats in the lower house.

But what happens if the federal Labor Party drops to 25% like they have in the Queensland state Labor Party or 23% of the primary vote like they have in the Victorian state Labor Party?

At the May 2025 federal election, the Liberal Party / National Party coalition received 31.82% of the primary vote and is now down to 17.5% in the above Roy Morgan poll.

Labor received 34.56% at the May 2025 federal election and is currently on 26% of the primary vote in the above poll.

But the Liberal Party / National Party coalition have been going down in the polls for almost the entire 12 months since the 2025 federal election and would have to be close to rock bottom at 17.5% of the primary vote.

If Labor ends up with the same drop as the coalition, they will end up at 20%, and if that happens, the backbenchers will start maneuvering to get rid of Albanese.

With Labor currently on 26% of the primary vote in the polls, it would be a huge worry for the federal Labor Party, which they haven’t felt before.

If the Labor Party were to stay at the current 26% of the primary vote, will Albanese stick around? And if they drop to 20%, will Albanese be forced out?

If Labor is low in the polls next year, 12 months out from the May 2028 federal election, it will be very tempting for federal MPs to get rid of Albanese and load him with all the blame for unpopular and/or failed policies like the NACC and AUKUS etc.

One thing in the above polls we haven’t seen before is The Greens have risen to 15.5% of the primary vote, which is possibly the highest they have ever been.

Imagine if The Greens got close to One Nation in the polls, wouldn’t that be a wild time in politics.

As Australia’s political system moves away from the Duopoly / UniParty of the Labor Party / Liberal and National Party coalition, the polls and political landscape will change rapidly, but it needs to be done, as the Duopoly / UniParty can’t be trusted, does not have the answers and is taking Australia backwards.

As for Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, he could end with the same fate as coalition leader Angus Taylor and be gone by the end of the year or early next year.

The likely candidates to replace Albanese, while stronger than the coalition candidates to replace Taylor, are not as strong as they have been in the past, and no one is really a huge standout.

KCA news: I published the second Kangaroo Court Uncut podcast on Monday (8/6/26), which you can watch by clicking here.

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