The coalition self-exploding this week is part of a longer trend over the last 40 years or so of Australia’s political reset where voters have been slowly moving away from voting for the old political parties to new parties and independents.
The Liberal Party and National Party coalition separating has helped expediate the political reset by driving more voters away from them with polls showing Pauline Hanson’s One Nation is the major beneficiary of the coalition’s failings.
The federal Liberal Party / National Party coalition are dying before our eyes and come 2028 will be unelectable rabble who will never again govern Australia. Or at least not without the support of minor parties and/or independents.
There will be no return to the glory days for the federal Liberal Party / National Party coalition as they don’t have anyone of real calibre to lead them out of the wilderness that they are stuck in.
Short-term the Labor Party and its supporters might think they are benefiting from the coalition’s failings but that won’t last long after they realise they have not benefited much, if anything, and minor parties and independents are the real winners.
The Labor Party / Coalition duopoly, or UniParty as some call it, is dead and that means minor parties such as Pauline Hanson’s One Nation will step into the void and there is nothing that will stop it.
Pauline Hanson’s One Nation
One Nation has had false starts in recent elections where they were predicted to do better than they did but Australian politics has changed rapidly over the last 12 months, and especially the last couple of months, and One Nation’s boost in recent polls will largely stick unless One Nation self-destruct.
Australia does not have a lot of minor parties, and the big advantage Pauline Hanson’s One Nation has is that they have been around a long time so as Liberal Party / National Party voters jump ship One Nation is a familiar place for them to park their votes.
Last week Pauline Hanson said she is “ready to lead country, form government” which made me laugh and I posted on social media, “Best joke I’ve heard in a long time“.
And it is a joke given Pauline Hanson’s One Nation only has one seat in the House of Representatives, Barnaby Joyce, where they need 76 seats to form government. So, the chances of Pauline Hanson ever being Prime Minister is zero.
To be fair, Pauline Hanson isn’t the first and won’t be the last politician to say something ridiculous to get media headlines.
But there are three main ways that One Nation could feasibly be a force during and after the 2028 election.
- They could win another 5 to 10 seats, to add to their current 4 seats, in the Senate which would make them a player on all votes of legislation.
- They could win 10 or so seats in the House of Representatives and hold the balance of power.
- Their voting preferences at the 2028 election could have a major bearing, not just on individual seats, but the overall result.
I’m no fan of Pauline Hanson’s One Nation and like many people have been dismissive of them in the past, but they could be kingmaker at the 2028 federal election.
The bottom line is the biggest thing Pauline Hanson’s One Nation has going for them is that they are not the Labor Party, Liberal Party or the National Party who have all lost credibility with many voters who see no downside voting for anyone else because they rate the old parties so lowly.
Summary
In the near future Sussan Ley will be replaced as Liberal Party leader and sometime after the Liberal Party and National Party will reform their coalition.
But the coalitions days as a major force in politics taking turns with the Labor Party governing Australia is over and that means big trouble for the Labor Party as well.
If Pauline Hanson’s One Nation don’t crumble with infighting and gain another one or two recruits from the Liberal or National Parties, they are the ones to watch at the 2028 federal election.
But even if Pauline Hanson’s One Nation did crumble their votes would go to other minor parties or independents, not back to the coalition or the Labor Party.
The Greens might also start rising in polls if the Labor Party continue their slide backwards and I would expect the number of independents in federal parliament to keep on growing in the future as well.
Time for change
I thought it was worth writing this article as some people might be stressed about the turbulence in federal politics, but it is all for the better.
As it currently stands the federal government is almost totally unaccountable which is not sustainable and has to change.
Slowly but surely, we are moving to having federal governments that are minority governments reliant on minor parties and independents to form government which should make them more accountable.
The Labor Party and Liberal Party / National Party coalition either don’t know how much trouble they are in or don’t care. I think they know but just don’t care as they are solely focused on what’s good for themselves and not what is good for voters and this country.
Instead of being stressed about what is happening in federal politics, sit back and enjoy as karma catches up with a few politicians and bring on the 2028 federal election where many of these pretend politicians will hit a brick wall with voters.
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Categories: Senator Pauline Hanson
I have been a Labor supporter for many years. I am now totally distrusting of Albanese and his party. Leadership is not cowardice. And good leadership is recognised with the clear ability to communicate with the electorate.
Albanese rarely confides his decisions with us. We need to know so much more about AUKUS. It IS taxpayer’s money and an incredible sum to boot!
To me, my new party of choice will be the Greens. Climate Change and our environment are critical to Australia moving forward. And yet Albanese puts Murray Watt, a bulldozer, in charge of environmental concerns. A very unwise decision. The Greens can be relied upon to consider both vital issues.
But Chalmers appears to have done a fantastic job as Treasurer. And if anyone I’d going to overhaul our tax system, it would be him. I doubt whether any other politician has the capability to do this.
I’m horrified that Albanese seemed to get on so well with Trump. Why? Doesn’t he realise what I’m sure the bulk of Australians think about Trump?
If Labor is to remain, Albanese needs to go. My instinct tells me that there is something dodgy behind AUKUS. For this reason alone, the Labor Party should be considering his replacement. If I’m thinking that Albanese is dodgy, others will be too. Get rid of Albanese, replace him with a person of higher integrity, and Labor has a chance. Under Albanese, its demise, I feel, is imminent.
What a majority
Are you insane? The Greens don’t give a flying fig about the environment anymore, they are only interested in power.
Can’t for the life of me understand how anyone could vote for the Green Party. They have no interest in the environment, only the power to be political activists who say anything and do anything for a headline. As for AUKUS, my pet theory is that it was never the intention for Australia to ‘own’ any nuclear submarine. What we are paying for, by increments, is for the training of crews and pens for UK and US sub’s.
What ever people think about the LNP, it’s a damned hell of a lot worse than they could ever imagine. There’s plenty of books written about it, if they want to read about it? The last two elections have proved that far beyond any doubt. The LNP worst election defeat ever and Labor’s greatest. The LNP is a completely dysfunctional cabal of corporate vested and self interest intent on fighting and undermining one another, some worse than others. They despise one another.
The loathsome Barnaby Joyce, metropolitan voter kryptonite, the most disliked politician in the country. The coalition have wanted to dump Joyce for years, he has lost them so many formerly safe Liberal seats along with Jacinta Namya Price and her election destroying MAGA speech in front of Dutton during the election has been credited with the loss of several more Liberal seats. The Liberal party now only have one inner metropolitan seat in the entire country. The bat shit crazy influence of “Sky After Dark” Abbott and Credlin media strategies and tactics, all bankrolled by Billionaire cartel has now seen the destruction of the party. Now unbelievably still influenced by Sky After Dark as we see moderate Sussan Ley being daily undermined and white anted by LNP/Media for Rhineharts new choice of leader Evangelical faction catastrophe 2.0 Andrew handy Hastie, about to be installed as Liberal party leader. Hastie will see the complete and utter destruction of the party.
“One Rhinehart Nation” bankrolled and virtually owned and operated now by Rhinhart is very much like Palmers party, all money no policies, Cookers, anti vaccine, conspiracy, incel crazies.
Hanson and One Nation have never and will never win a seat in the Federal lower house. There just isn’t enough politically ignorant people that would elect a billionaire owned and operated Trumpist MAGA puppet party, in any single electorate, even in deepest dark nth Queensland. If any media posted a list of how Hansons One Nation has actually voted “When she does actually show up and votes”, against peoples best interests in the Senate it would be all over by lunch time!
Totally agree…..
So correct. ON vote is a dead end, Billionaires play thing/ run by Liberal party candidate pretending to be a working class outlet. Would totally fall apart by infighting and in fact intereting to see how long before Barnaby and Pauline or someone else bring that shemozzel down.
Hopefully a new Liberal Party would emerge, perhaps with some of the Teals as founding MPs.
Ultimately, to give our democracy a jab in the arm, we need Proportional Representation to fix most of the debilating ills of our mafia-infested two Party-Preferred electoral gerrymander.
More at: https://www.onlineopinion.com.au/view.asp?article=23487
Where Pauline Hanson is winning the Acceptance vote is in the words she is using. The “I am for Australia”are the words that are winning over the voters of this nation. The other two parties have already proven that they are more concerned with Big Business and Fourghen Problems/Development more then what our own country needs. Who Cares if China is building more coal fired power stations, What the People want to know is what are these Politician’s going to do to relieve the stress and damage they have already created with their current agendors. The average person in this country wants to achieve three things, 1) An income that will sustain them and their family in a comfortable lifestyle. 2) An affordable home where their family can grow and have pride in their achievement’s. 3) The means at retirement to know that they will be looked after and can do so without having to go into poverty and sell the Family Jewelry. This is how our Nation was before the current Crop of Politician’s started to play around with their mates from other countries and trying to develop the world of Utopia. They made Australia the Guinea Pig of their whole Experiment, and when it started to crumble the instigators took their money and bailed out, leaving the mess for someone else to clean up. Excessive emigration from incompatible countries have introduced the same problems which have plagued other nations for years. Yet the two major Parties still persisted. People are NOT stupid when it comes to their living Standards, their lifestyles or their conditions. These three thing affect them more then anything else. It is these that will cause them to revolt, at the Ballet Box or in the Streets.
You raise some very good points. Regrettably, there is no return to a simple focus on the individual good life as we have previously known it. Global forces are dominating and must be engaged. Australia is currently locked indoors with 45 deg heat and bushfire storms. This — and worse! — will be the new normal thanks to climate change. That’s every year, FOREVER.
Why is it the majority of parliamentarians are drawn from the upwardly mobile middle class? How can they have any idea of a large proportion of the electorate and their struggle to live a decent life? Class is the bogeyman no one wants to talk about as the borers/ pollies/ sychophants etc. depend increasingly on hyperbole and vacuity to fill the coffers of the mendacious merchants Meanwhile more people resort to palliatives to survive their daily sufferings.
I can’t see what all the fuss is about. This “expediation” (love that word, Shane) is what several generations of voters have been earnestly investing in. You’d think they’d be happy with their mess.
No political party can afford to be static. Policies need constant review. Good policy and the party will grow in popularity.
Good analysis, thanks.
Paulines zion propagandist. watched her take over the “freedom” rallies covertly shamelessly. Not going to vote your way out of this one 🫡
Australia’s political leadership is failing its people, and the turbulence described in this article makes that crystal clear. The collapse of the major parties and the rise of minor parties reflect just how disconnected politics has become from everyday Australians.
Hundreds of billions are being spent on a handful of submarines while hospitals, aged care, mental health, emergency services, and critical resources like water bombers struggle for funding. At the same time, the country’s preparedness for another COVID-type outbreak remains fragile, with limited ICU capacity, stretched public health infrastructure, and the ongoing need for vaccines, antivirals, and coordinated response plans.
Even at the local level, representation is ineffective. Despite raising legitimate concerns on electoral and community matters, many constituents receive no response. Decisions are sometimes made based on personal or religious beliefs rather than the interests or majority view of the electorate, leaving ordinary Australians to deal with the consequences of inaction. Promises of advocacy rarely translate into results, eroding trust and accountability.
Australians want leaders who are open, decisive, and focused on practical solutions—those who listen, adapt, and put the wellbeing of citizens first. It’s time for accountability, transparency, and policies that genuinely address the challenges of everyday life, rather than continuing the self-serving games of the old parties.
“If Pauline Hanson’s One Nation don’t crumble with infighting and gain another one or two recruits from the Liberal or National Parties, they are the ones to watch at the 2028 federal election.”
Well, LNP have called Senate preselections 2 years early, Matt Canavan might be in the crosshairs, so i’d say he’ll switch to ON soon, then there’s Jacinta Price, her only hope of staying in Parliament is switching to ON.
While ON won’t win any Lower House Liberal seats, Labor is likely to win a few.
So long as Liberals push Nuclear, they’re gonna bleed support to Labor as the only antinuclear Party. Yet the Liberals can’t work this out. It’s as if they’re just presented with policies and told:
‘Go out and sell this. Good luck!”
Both the LNP and Hansen’s One nation are scrambling over each other to grovel and kiss Trump’s backside. All their supporters should be sent to Russia or North Korea to enjoy how dictators treat their citizens. They are pathetic.
Well, there’s a Color Revolution happening on the streets of Minneapolis right now.
Trump might welcome a few words of support, but I doubt any will be forthcoming from the LNP or One Nation.