Based on the success of the Community Independents in the 2022 federal election there is no chance of the Liberal/National Party coalition ever governing Australia as a majority government again and in this article, I’ll point out why.
Community Independents have won at least six new seats in the 2022 federal election with most commentary focusing on the Liberal Party’s failures and widespread dislike for Scott Morrison as the reasons for the community independents’ success.
But what is obvious from listening to the Community Independents’ sales pitches is they weaponised the electorates’ comparable dislike for National Party leader and former Deputy Prime Minister Barnaby Joyce to help win votes. This is important as the Nationals are claiming they had a good 2022 election but are ignoring the damage they did to the Liberal Party’s votes.
One of the key lines that the Community Independents used in interviews was for example in the seat of Kooyong “Josh Frydenberg voted with Barnaby Joyce everyone time on climate policy”. Not only did that drive home the fact the federal government was doing very little on climate policy but by naming Barnaby Joyce it would have also annoyed people because Barnaby Joyce is regarded as a moron by many which any search of social media will support.
It is important to know and understand who the Community Independents are and what is driving them because once you do you can see not only will the Liberal/Nationals have to overcome the Labor Party in 2025 but also the Community Independents, who are a growing force, and that is just not going to happen.
Community Independents are here to stay
There are currently 2 MPs in parliament who could be classified as Community Independents, Helen Haines and Zali Steggall and they will be joined by at least another six who are Allegra Spender (Wentworth), Dr Monique Ryan (Kooyong), Kate Chaney (Curtin), Zoe Daniel (Goldstein), Kylea Tink (North Sydney) and Sophie Scamps (Mackellar). And there are also a few more independents in the federal parliament.
The Liberal Party and parts of the media tried to smear the Community Independents as being a political party run by millionaire Simon Holmes a Court, who set up Climate 200 to help fund independents, but that was a huge lie that backfired badly. As it says on the Climate 200 website:
Climate 200 is a community crowdfunded initiative established in 2019 to support pro-climate, pro-integrity, and pro-gender equity candidates. Climate 200 is not a party. It does not start campaigns, select candidates, speak for candidates, dictate policies, or have members. We simply give strong community campaigns a leg up with funding and support. (Click here to read more)
Climate 200 certainly helped fund Community Independents but all the Community Independents also raised money themselves and I suspect all the Community Independents that won would have done so anyhow because what was their main power was during the election campaign is the number of volunteers they had who door knocked the electorate asking for votes.
Some have also suggested that the Community Independents have only been around 12 months but that is a lie as well. The Community Independent movement started in 2013 just before the election of Cathy McGowan.
Ms McGowan set up the community group Voices of Indi to help herself get elected in 2013. She was re-elected in 2016 and then in 2019 she retired, and Voices of Indi supported independent Helen Haines who won in 2019 and was re-elected in 2022. Since her retirement, Cathy McGowan has helped the Community Independent movement grow with training and seminars etc as per the below video which is an episode of the ABC’s Australian Story titled “An Independent Woman – Cathy McGowan” which was broadcast on the 16th of May 2022.
The below video about Community Independents is a must-watch for anyone following politics because it points to where Australian politics is going.
There were about 25 Community Independents in the 2022 federal election and if they had run in every electorate, 151 across Australia, they have likely won 30 to 40 seats and had the balance of power, so let that sink in. And they might do just that at the 2025 election. In fact, if they can grow from the current eight to fifteen or twenty at the 2025 election that would almost certainly give them the balance of power. Although it must be noted The Greens are also on the march and have gone from one lower house seat to a likely three or four.
There are a few comments I would like to make about the above video:
- My background is in sales, and I can tell you for certain the most powerful asset behind the Community Independents is the number of volunteers they have and the amount of door knocking they did. Nothing beats face to face sales, and they had a good story to sell which is proven by the number of people who bought it and voted for them.
- Even if the Liberals had as many volunteers and did as much doorknocking as the Community Independents the Liberals/Nationals didn’t have a good story to sell and it might have even done more damage than good.
- As it is said in the video the world will not cave in because we have more independents in government and in fact, it is good for democracy. And that is why Rupert Murdoch and others don’t like it because they can no longer control the government.
- In the past when independents retired the seat would often go back to the old parties. But the fact that the Community Independents have community groups behind them suggests that when they retire, they will pass the baton onto another independent like Cathy McGowan passed her seat to independent Helen Haines. This is important because it points to the six Community Independents who have won seats will be a foundation that will keep growing at each election.
Dr Monique Ryan who won the seat of Kooyong from former federal treasurer Jos Frydenberg tweeted: “With 2,000 volunteers and 3,000 donors, we knocked on 55,000 doors and distributed 4,000 corflutes. We did politics differently and we changed the government.” (Click here to see on Twitter) (There are roughly 110,000 voters per electorate so knocking on 55,000 doors means that every door was knocked on in the Kooyong electorate by Dr Monique Ryan’s volunteers)
On the 12th of May I published an article titled “Why “it’s time” to vote Independent so we can take back Australia’s democracy that’s been stolen by the major parties” (Click here to read) which is relevant because the Community Independent movement has been growing and reported on but many have largely ignored it.
I published the below video on the 23rd of May 2022 raising further issues regarding this article:
Federal ICAC – The perfect storm for 2025
Anthony Albanese only has to do one thing to guarantee winning the 2025 election and that is to do what he promised and legislate a Federal ICAC that has teeth. It will take 12 months to become operational and another 12 months to finish its first investigations that will likely recommend criminal charges against several federal coalition MP’s which will be just before the 2025 federal election and fresh on voters’ minds.
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese should show respect for the Community Independents because in the 2022 election they only targeted Liberal Party MP’s and a few Nationals but at the 2025 election, they might also target Labor MP’s. Having a good relationship with the Community Independents going forward will be important no matter who is in government and Prime Minister Anthony Albanese should never forget that.
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Categories: Prime Minister Scott Morrison